Electricity Risk Curves

Current Status

As at 24 November, the risk level for the New Zealand and the South Island is set to Normal.

  • Watch represents 8 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • Alert represents 3 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • If actual storage drops below Emergency level, an emergency situation will be declared and an Official Conservation Campaign will commence.

Electricity Risk Curves

New Zealand and South Island controlled storage are above average. The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Curves - Percentage Risk.

 

Electricity Risk Curve Files

Latest New Zealand Electricity Risk and South Island Electricity Risk Curves [ pdf 387.62 KB ]

Electricity Risk Curve Data for 2020 and 2021 [ xlsx 34.06 KB ] (Effective from 27 November 2020)

Simulated Storage Trajectories Files

Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 140.88 KB ] (Effective from 27 November 2020)

Assumptions and Update Logs

Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions [ xlsx 40.28 KB ] (Updated 27 November 2020)
Electricity Risk Curve Update Log [ pdf 3.3 MB ] (Updated 27 November 2020)

Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions [ pdf 384.17 KB ] (base document effective from 26 August 2020)

Scenarios

Electricity Risk Curve Tiwai Scenario [ pdf 561.11 KB ] (Effective from 21 October 2020)
Stimulated Storage Trajectories Tiwai Scenario [ pdf 326.3 KB ] (Effective from 21 October 2020)
Electricity Risk Curve Thermal Scenarios [ pdf 1.55 MB ] (Effective from 16 September 2020)
Simulated Storage Trajectories Gas Disruption Scenario [ pdf 141.01 KB ] (Effective from 16 September 2020)

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