Electricity Risk Curves

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October 2024 ERC update:

  • The controlled hydro storage position has remained above average since our last ERC update on 20 September due to above average inflows, high wind generation and reduced demand due to warmer weather and reduced industrial load.
  • The chart now shows the contingent storage which is available in an Alert and Emergency status setting.
  • The risk curves for 2025 have reduced. The reduction is largely due to an increase in thermal fuel capability including coal import rates; forecast gas production; coal stockpile and gas storage levels at Ahuroa. To realise this reduction in the 2025 risk position means increased thermal fuel capability being brought to market by participants contracting and trading activity. This can support an increased thermal generation response under any extended periods of low inflow.
  • Continued focus on fuel management for 2025 is therefore crucial to reduce the security of supply risks.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

 

To learn more about the Electricity Risk Curves click here.

 

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Related Files

Electricity Risk Curve Files

ERC data file.xlsx (XLSX 26.26 KB)

Assumptions and Update Logs

Historic Logs
Scenarios