Electricity Risk Curves

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November 2024 ERC update:

  • ERC and SST Update - November 2024.pdf (PDF 2.07 MB)
  • Controlled hydro storage has increased since the October update, and sits at 134% of mean as of 20 November 2024.
  • The risk curves for 2025 have reduced in this months update, largely due to an increase in thermal generation capability via increased fuel (coal stockpile and gas storage levels at Ahuroa) as well as TCC now being available during 2025 (as signalled by Contact).
  • None of the modelled SSTs cross the risk curves in 2024 or 2025.
  • To realise this reduction in the 2025 risk position means increased thermal fuel capability being brought to market by participants contracting and trading activity. This can support an increased thermal generation response under any extended periods of low inflows.
  • Continued focus on hydro storage and thermal fuel management ahead of winter 2025 is therefore key to reduce the security of supply risks for next year.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

To learn more about the Electricity Risk Curves click here.

South Island Watch Chart

Related Files

Electricity Risk Curve Files

ERC data file.xlsx (XLSX 12.45 KB)

Assumptions and Update Logs

Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions Spreadsheet.xlsx (XLSX 31.04 KB)
Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions.pdf (PDF 667.79 KB)
Historic Logs
ERC and SST Update - November 2024.pdf (PDF 2.07 MB)
ERC Update October 2024.pdf (PDF 1.99 MB)
ERC Update September 2024.pdf (PDF 1.92 MB)
ERC_Update_August_V2_2024.pdf (PDF 1.93 MB)
ERC update - August 2024.pdf (PDF 1.9 MB)
ERC Update Log - July 2024.pdf (PDF 1.91 MB)
ERC Update Log - June 2024 including Reduced Gas Availability.pdf (PDF 3.85 MB)
ERC Update Log - May 2024 including Reduced Gas Availability.pdf (PDF 3.56 MB)
ERC Update Log - April 2024.pdf (PDF 2.16 MB)
ERC Update Log - March 2024.pdf (PDF 2.71 MB)
ERC Update Log - February 2024.pdf (PDF 2.71 MB)
ERC update - January 2024 Gas Reallocation.pdf (PDF 1.53 MB)
ERC update log - January 2024.pdf (PDF 2.03 MB)
ERC Update Log - December 2023.pdf (PDF 2.01 MB)
ERC Update Log - November 2023.pdf (PDF 2.06 MB)
ERC Update Log - October 2023.pdf (PDF 1.88 MB)
ERC Update Log - September 2023.pdf (PDF 1.85 MB)
ERC Update Log - August 2023.pdf (PDF 1.88 MB)
ERC Update Log - July 2023.pdf (PDF 1.93 MB)
Scenarios
ERC Update Log - Early Tauhara Scenario - April 2024.pdf (PDF 1.66 MB)
ERC Update - November 2023 Gas Reallocation.pdf (PDF 1.75 MB)
ERC Update - November 2023 Additional Rankine .pdf (PDF 1.75 MB)
ERC Gas Reallocation Scenario October 2023.pdf (PDF 1.43 MB)
ERC Update Log with Increased Gas Reallocation Scenario - September 2023.pdf (PDF 3.33 MB)

 

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