Energy security outlook

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February 2025 Energy Security Outlook

  • The national controlled hydro storage position has decreased since last month's outlook published on 24 January, and is now below average at 86% of the historic mean as of 24 February. The rapid decline in hydro storage is largely due to historically low inflows from the start of the year coincident with low wind generation and planned thermal outages.
  • The Electricity Risk Curves (ERCs) for 2025 have slightly decreased relative to the January update. The decrease is largely due to a revision in the demand forecast including signalled industrial demand reductions, an increase in thermal fuel availability due to increases in the coal stockpile and a slight increase in forecast gas production.
  • No Simulated Storage Trajectories (SSTs) cross the ERCs in 2025, however this assumes the market supplements the existing coal stockpile and gas availability for electricity generation to maintain increased thermal generation during low hydro inflows.
  • The ERCs assume a medium gas production forecast with coal replenished at its maximum import capability. We have been provided firm coal contract information. The gap between the maximum import capability assumed in the ERCs and the firm contracted coal over the period March - August 2025 is equivalent to ~400kT.
  • The current rainfall outlook indicates normal to dry conditions to prevail for the next five weeks. If this continues on the drier side of historic levels this will necessitate higher levels of contracted thermal fuel for electricity generation than currently announced by generators.
  • Increased thermal fuel availability being brought to market by participants' contracting and trading contracting and trading activity can support an increased thermal generation response under extended periods of low inflow. This highlights the importance of a heightened focus on hydro storage and thermal fuel management ahead of and through winter 2025.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

To learn more about the Electricity Risk Curves click here.

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Related Files

Energy Security Outlook Data Files

ERC data file.xlsx (XLSX 27.33 KB)
SST data file.csv (CSV 1.4 MB)

Assumptions and Update Logs

Scenarios
Historic Logs