Energy security outlook

January 2025 Energy Security Outlook

Energy Security Outlook - January 2025.pdf (PDF 3.48 MB)

Reduced Gas Scenario - January 2025.pdf (PDF 3.48 MB)
The controlled national hydro storage position has decreased since the last outlook published 20 December, but remains above average at 102% of the historic mean as of 30 January.
The Electricity Risk Curves (ERCs) for 2025 have increased relative to the December update. The increase is largely due to a decrease in modelled thermal fuel availability including reduced forecast gas production and modelled coal stockpile. While the current coal stockpile has increased and allows for more Rankine generation in immediate months, our risk modelling for future months has a reduction in this coal stockpile, further constraining thermal generation and increasing the risk.
None of the modelled Simulated Storage Trajectories (SSTs) cross the ERCs in 2025 however this assumes the market supplements existing coal stockpile and gas availability to maintain increased thermal generation during the low hydro inflow sequences.
To minimise the 2025 risk position, continued focus on hydro storage and fuel management ahead of winter 2025 is crucial. Increased thermal fuel capability being brought to market by participants' contracting and trading activity can support an increased thermal generation response under any extended periods of low inflow.
As part of the January update an ERC Reduced Gas Production Scenario was included, which increased the ERCs by up to 380 GWh.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

To learn more about the Electricity Risk Curves click here.

Related Files

Electricity Risk Curve Files

ERC data file.xlsx (XLSX 12.11 KB)

Assumptions and Update Logs

Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions Spreadsheet.xlsx (XLSX 29.97 KB)

Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions.pdf (PDF 667.79 KB)

Scenarios: Reduced Gas Scenario - January 2025.pdf (PDF 3.48 MB)

ERC Update Log - Early Tauhara Scenario - April 2024.pdf (PDF 1.66 MB)

ERC Update - November 2023 Gas Reallocation.pdf (PDF 1.75 MB)

ERC Update - November 2023 Additional Rankine .pdf (PDF 1.75 MB)

ERC Gas Reallocation Scenario October 2023.pdf (PDF 1.43 MB)

ERC Update Log with Increased Gas Reallocation Scenario - September 2023.pdf (PDF 3.33 MB)
Historic Logs: Energy Security Outlook - January 2025.pdf (PDF 3.48 MB)

Energy Security Outlook - December 2024.pdf (PDF 1.89 MB)

ERC and SST Update - November 2024.pdf (PDF 2.07 MB)

ERC Update October 2024.pdf (PDF 1.99 MB)

ERC Update September 2024.pdf (PDF 1.92 MB)

ERC_Update_August_V2_2024.pdf (PDF 1.93 MB)

ERC update - August 2024.pdf (PDF 1.9 MB)

ERC Update Log - July 2024.pdf (PDF 1.91 MB)

ERC Update Log - June 2024 including Reduced Gas Availability.pdf (PDF 3.85 MB)

ERC Update Log - May 2024 including Reduced Gas Availability.pdf (PDF 3.56 MB)

ERC Update Log - April 2024.pdf (PDF 2.16 MB)

ERC Update Log - March 2024.pdf (PDF 2.71 MB)

ERC Update Log - February 2024.pdf (PDF 2.71 MB)

ERC update - January 2024 Gas Reallocation.pdf (PDF 1.53 MB)

ERC update log - January 2024.pdf (PDF 2.03 MB)

ERC Update Log - December 2023.pdf (PDF 2.01 MB)

ERC Update Log - November 2023.pdf (PDF 2.06 MB)

ERC Update Log - October 2023.pdf (PDF 1.88 MB)

ERC Update Log - September 2023.pdf (PDF 1.85 MB)

ERC Update Log - August 2023.pdf (PDF 1.88 MB)

ERC Update Log - July 2023.pdf (PDF 1.93 MB)