Security of Supply Annual Assessment

Transpower, as the System Operator, is responsible for publishing the medium-term security of supply assessment (SOSA) annually. This assessment uses forecasts of electricity supply and demand to assess the ability of the electricity system to meet New Zealand's needs over the decade ahead.

The analysis looks at existing generation as well as planned generation at different stages of the development process to determine whether there is enough electricity generation in the system to meet total demand across the country under a range of supply and demand scenarios, such as demand rising much faster than forecast or major industrial users ceasing operations.  

It calculates both energy and capacity margins. Energy margins assess the adequacy of generation plus HVDC transmission capacity between the North and South Islands to meet expected electricity demand across the winter months under different supply and demand conditions.  The capacity margin assesses the adequacy of generation and HVDC transmission capacity to meet peak winter North Island demand.

These margins are compared against security standards set by the Electricity Authority in the Security Standards Assumptions Document (SSAD)

Generators, other market participants and investors use the annual assessment to inform decision-making over the short- and medium-term, including about development of new generation. 

Security of Supply Assessment 2024

The 2024 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below:

Previous annual assessments

2024

Review of the 2024 Draft Security of Supply Assessment

In May 2024 we asked for comment on the 2024 Draft SOSA. Linked below is the consultation document and submission documents of the responses we received.

Consultation Documents:

Submissions Received:

Review of the security of supply annual assessment reference case assumptions and sensitivities

In Nov-Dec 2023  we asked for comment on the Reference Case and Sensitivities we use for the Security of Supply Annual Assessment. Linked below is the consultation document and submission documents of the responses we received.

Consultation Document

2024 SOSA Reference Case and Sensitivities Consultation Document

Submissions Received:

Summary of Submissions

2023

Security of Supply Assessment 2023

The 2023 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below:

Updated SOSA Information

MBIE have updated forecasts of gas production and gas reserves.  These forecasts are used as inputs to the annual Security of Supply Assessment, and the updates impact the results of some sensitivities in this analysis.  The following document shows the impact these changes have on the 2023 SOSA.

Draft Security of Supply Assessment

In May 2023 we asked for feedback on the draft 2023 SOSA the submission period closed on 26 May 2023, please go to the Invitation to Comment: Draft Security of Supply Assessment page for further details.

Review of the security of supply annual assessment reference case

In December 2022  we asked for comment on the Reference Case and Sensitivities we use for the Security of Supply Annual Assessment. Linked below is the consultation document and a document containing the summary of responses we received.

2022

 Security of Supply Assessment 2022

The 2022 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below:

 

Review of the security of supply annual assessment reference case

In February as part of the 2022 Security of Supply Annual Assessment we asked for comment on the Reference Case and Sensitivities we use for the Security of Supply Annual Assessment. The document linked below contains the comments provided by industry participants and our responses to them.

 

2021

 The 2021 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below:

Submissions

2020

The 2020 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below:

Submissions

2019

 The 2019 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below:

2018

 The 2018 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below:

2017

 The 2017 Security of Supply Annual Assessment is published below: